Election analyst Nate Silver gave former President Donald Trump a record-high probability of winning against Vice President Kamala Harris.
The bump came partially as a result of Sunday’s New York Times/Sienna poll, which Silver has as one of the highest-rated pollsters. Silver’s newest rating has Trump with a 63.8% probability, compared to Harris’s 36%. The former president is also favored to win every swing state.
Silver’s current odds give Trump a 64% chance of winning Pennsylvania, 54% for Michigan, 53% for Wisconsin, 77% for Arizona, 75% for North Carolina, 68% for Georgia, and 61% for Nevada.
The new probability total is a nearly five-point boost for Trump since Thursday, when he was given a 58.2% probability, itself a boost from the 52.4% a week prior. The prediction shows a further eroding of Harris’s honeymoon support since President Joe Biden dropped out in July.
In a Substack post, Silver explained that the new poll was such bad news for Harris due to the large sample size and reliability of the poll, which he ranks as the second best. He said the new poll “confirms the model’s view that there’s been some sort of a shift in momentum in the race.”
Kash Patel Believes Kamala Harris Will Be Installed as President Before Election
by Jim Hᴏft
Sep. 8, 2024 9:03 pm
Kash Patel, former Department of Defense Chief of Staff and Deputy Director of National Intelligence under President Trump, believes that Kamala Harris may be installed as President before the 2024 election.
Speaking on the popular X22 Report podcast, Patel shared his belief that President Biden might step down and hand the reins of the presidency to his vice president in a carefully orchestrated political move designed to shield his embattled family.
Patel, who was promoting his new book Government Gangsters: The Deep State, the Truth, and the Battle for Our Democracy, didn’t mince words.
“It’s really on him to, I guess in this instance, work with Biden as the Commander-in-Chief, who could also, by the way, slip the Commander-in-Chief hat over to Kamala in the lead up to the election here to make her President and give her a boost politically somehow, and he could just retire from the seat,” Patel said.
Patel speculated that a deal could already be in the works, whereby Biden steps down to ensure that Harris assumes power before the election.
This, he claimed, would be part of a broader effort to protect the Biden family from legal repercussions stemming from ongoing investigations into Hunter Biden’s business dealings and tax issues.
Patel asserted that Biden’s motive would be to secure political and legal protection for his family in exchange for leaving office.
Patel said during the interview:
“I think it’s in the works. I’ve always said this: Look, I think that no member of the Biden family will ever go to prison. This tax trial that Hunter Biden is now undergoing is a total sham and a fraud. He should have been charged with multiple serious felonies years ago, not to mention the fact that he’s already a convicted felon. But Daddy is going to save him. He’s never going to do a day in jail.
I think the horse trade will be: “I’m going to, Joe Biden, leave or retire. You, Kamala, are going to take the reins. And once the election is over, you’re going to pardon my son, my entire family, and myself.” Because remember, presidential pardons aren’t just retroactive; they’re prospective. So, if you pardon someone, you pardon them for the entirety of the conduct that you include in the pardon paperwork.
I’ve always thought that was going to be part of some deal or horse trade. Because if you can count on Joe Biden to do one thing, it’s to save his family from all this illicit conduct that they have been caught in, and he can do it with a stroke of a pen.”
WATCH:
October Surprise
Kash Patel Believes Kamala Harris will be Installed as President Before the Election
— Lord help us…
• he believes an agreement will be made for Biden to hand over the presidency to Kamala Harris in exchange for a presidential pardon for all members of… pic.twitter.com/q2QhwSuH0d
🚨 October Surprise 😲
Kash Patel Believes Kamala Harris will be Installed as President Before the Election — Lord help us…
• he believes an agreement will be made for Biden to hand over the presidency to Kamala Harris in exchange for a presidential pardon for all members of… pic.twitter.com/q2QhwSuH0d
Watch What Happens When a Triggered Leftist Attempts to Assault a Larger Trump Fan In Florida (VIDEO)
by Cullen Linebarger
Sep. 5, 2024 5:40 pm
Triggered Kamala Harris Fan attempts to assault YouTuber Adam Francisco (Credit: Adam Francisco YouTube)
A triggered supporter of Kamala Harris got more than he bargained for after trying to assault a Trump supporter holding a “one-man rally” for the 45th president in Florida last month.
Adam Francisco, a self-described street comedian, also wanted to gauge support for Trump while trying to sway those who may have doubts as he campaigned for Trump in John’s Pass Village, located in Pinellas County.
He posted a video of his activities on his YouTube channel on August 21, which has since gone viral, especially one specific sequence.
While Francisco, who is seen holding a Trump-Vance flag, found overwhelming support overall for Trump, one individual was insanely triggered by his presence. As the YouTube creator is speaking to an older gentleman about voting for Donald Trump, an angry voice in the background cries, “F**k you!”
A man wearing a black T-shirt and pink shorts soon emerges and flips off Francisco. The creator responds by mocking the unhinged loser, exclaiming, “Look at this weird guy! I bet he’s never lifted a weight in his life!”
The angry liberal immediately turns around upon hearing the taunt and charges Francisco in an attempt to take him down. But Francisco easily brushes him aside and asks if his would-be attacker is willing to go to jail for assault.
The triggered leftist ends up storming off in frustration while flipping off Francisco again. A bemused Francisco responds by telling the man he looks like Thomas Crooks, the Trump shooter.
WATCH:
The Youtuber closes with a warning that the childish liberal better vacate the area before he “gets his a** kicked.
Watch the full video of Francisco’s exploits in Johns Pass Village below:
First Illegal Alien This Year Charged in Connection to Voting Fraud After Years of Voting in US Elections — This Is Just the Beginning as Tens of Thousands of Illegals Are Currently Registered to Vote in US
by Jim Hoft
Sep. 9, 2024 7:45 am
The Northern District of Alabama US Attorney’s Office charged illegal immigrant Angelica Maria Francisco after she stole a US citizen’s identity and has voted in numerous elections since 2011.
Francisco has resided mostly in Russellville, Alabama since she came to the US.
Biden’s DOJ said Francisco has agreed to plead guilty to all of the charges.
According to the DOJ complaint:
An undocumented individual has been charged in connection with her fraudulent assumption of a United States citizen’s identity and her use of that identity to vote in multiple elections and obtain multiple United States passports, announced U.S. Attorney Prim F. Escalona and Resident Agent in Charge Joseph R. Wysowaty of the U.S. State Department’s Diplomatic Security Service (DSS) Atlanta Resident Office.
A nine-count information filed in U.S. District Court charges Angelica Maria Francisco, 42, most recently of Russellville, with false claims of citizenship in connection with voting, false statements in application for a United States passport, use of a United States passport obtained by false statements, and aggravated identity theft.
A plea agreement was filed with the information, indicating that Francisco has agreed to plead guilty to all of the charges.
According to the information and plea agreement, Francisco assumed the identity of a United States citizen in or around 2011.
Francisco used the false identity to obtain a United States passport in 2011.
She subsequently used the United States passport to travel to and from her native country of Guatemala in 2012, 2015, and 2018. Using the same false identity, Francisco also registered to vote in Alabama in 2016 and voted in the 2016 and 2020 primary and general elections.
And in 2021, Francisco used the same false identity to apply for and receive a renewed passport, which she used to travel to and from Guatemala in 2022.
The Court will set a date for Francisco to enter her guilty plea.
Of course, Francisco is just the tip of the iceberg. There are likely hundreds of thousands of illegal aliens registered to vote in America today.
In August, TGP reported that Alabama state officials have discovered over 3,000 illegal voters registered in the state’s voter rolls. This report comes following Secretary of State Wes Allen ordering the removal of all non-citizens from the election database.
During the officials’ review, the state found a whopping 3,251 individuals with ‘alien registration numbers’ who were registered to vote – despite it being a federal offense. The U.S. Constitution and federal laws unequivocally stipulate that only U.S. citizens are entitled to vote in federal elections.
Secretary Allen’s decisive action to remove these non-citizens from the voter rolls is a necessary step to rectify this situation. However, the discovery raises critical questions about how such a lapse occurred in the first place.
Illegal aliens are also being registered to vote in Georgia and North Carolina.
In 2014, The Gateway Pundit reported on hundreds of illegals voting in Maryland.
Nearly every Democrat representative voted to protect the illegals to vote in the upcoming election back in July.
In June, America First Legal sent a directive to all 50 states on preventing illegal aliens from voting amidst reports that the lawless Biden regime were distributing social security numbers and voter registration forms to illegals.
The AFL letter was addressed to the chief election official of all 50 states, with copies sent to each Governor and Attorney General. The letter outlined how two key existing federal laws could be used to obtain information from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security about the citizenship or immigration status of any individual for “any purpose authorized by law.”
“Biden is giving registration forms and social security numbers to illegals. America First Legal is sending an urgent ACTION PLAN to officials in all 50 states on how to stop illegals & non-citizens from voting. States must ensure only citizens vote,” AFL wrote on its social media.
Stephen Miller, former senior advisor to President Trump and America First Legal President, said, “Joe Biden is mass importing criminal migrants, giving them social security numbers, and handing out voter registration forms to migrants, and vigorously opposes any and every effort to verify the citizenship of voters before voting. This is a clear, unambiguous, and direct effort to sabotage the 2024 election through potential mass illegal alien voting — aiding and abetting dramatic foreign interference and the subversion of our democracy.”
Voter roll cleanup shows that the 2020 election was anything but the most secure in history
By Eric Utter
Sep. 08, 2024
Texas Governor Greg Abbott recently announced that the Lone Star State’s effort to clean up its voter rolls has resulted in more than 1 million names being removed.
Since Senate Bill 1 was signed into law in 2021, individuals who are noncitizens, have moved to other states, or who have passed away have been removed from the voter rolls.
Indeed, thousands of noncitizens (https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahba...rolls-n2644020) have been removed from the rolls. This, of course, greatly angers Democrats, who fervently believe that non-residents, non-citizens -- and the dead -- should be able to vote. As often as they like.
Abbott released a statement saying, “Election integrity is essential to our democracy. I have signed the strongest election laws in the nation to protect the right to vote and to crackdown on illegal voting. These reforms have led to the removal of over one million ineligible people from our voter rolls in the last three years, including noncitizens, deceased voters, and people who moved to another state.”
Fascist! Hater! Far-right racist! How dare he try to prevent the dead from voting! Is he trying to destroy our democracy?!
A million names came off of one state’s voter rolls? And the 2020 presidential election was determined by as few as 50,000 total votes in just three states?! And Democrats and pundits still claim the election was the most secure in American history?! (Covers mouth, coughs while saying “bull***t!”)
That claim might be slightly more credible if Democrats weren’t “freaking out over Republicans’ efforts to stop illegal aliens from voting,” (https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiep...-vote-n2644037) as The Gateway Pundit recently reported.
Or if Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson hadn’t issued a direct threat to any local election officials who might choose not to certify the upcoming 2024 election results in the event of fraud, saying, “We will come for you.”
Or if states had honored the request of RFK, Jr. to be removed from their ballots. Or if the California Senate hadn’t passed a law banning voter ID in local elections.
Republicans’ pathetically tepid efforts to prevent Democrats from stealing elections in the future apparently haven’t assuaged the fears of Democrats that the Bad Orange Man could somehow win in 2024. Therefore, many are hoping and planning for a quick return of COVID-19 … and especially the accompanying draconian lockdowns and mail-in voting that were the hallmarks of the previous pandemic.
Debate Strategy: Kamala Harris to Cast Herself as Agent of Change After Years in Power
by Wendell Husebo
Sep. 09, 2024
Vice President Kamala Harris will likely try to cast herself as an agent of change during Tuesday’s debate, even though she has been in power for nearly four years.
Under the Biden-Harris administration, costs soared about 20 percent across the board, migrant crime spiked, illegal immigrants invaded the southern border, Russia invaded Ukraine, and 13 U.S. troops died during the Afghan withdrawal.
Former President Donald Trump, who is the most experienced debater in the “modern age,” according to CNN, will slam Harris on those issues, holding Harris accountable for the administration’s failed policies.
“We want to keep him steered toward hitting her record. On fracking, on her flip flops, and show that she is just as responsible for the Biden administration’s failed policies as Biden is,” one Trump adviser told CNN.
Many of Harris’s policy solutions remain ambiguous, leaving Trump a powerful line of attack to cast her as a slippery politician and a flip-flopper. Harris allegedly changed her view, outright flip-flopped, or has an unknown position in nine areas:
Banning plastic straws (Flip-flopped)
A mandate for only producing electric and hydrogen vehicles by 2035 (Unknown)
Banning fracking (Flip-flopped)
Gun confiscation through a buyback program (Allegedly no longer supports according to anonymous campaign spokesperson)
Decriminalizing illegally crossing the southern border (Allegedly no longer supports according to anonymous campaign spokesperson)
Reparations (Unknown)
Building a border wall (Formerly opposed, allegedly now supports according to anonymous campaign spokesperson)
A federal jobs guarantee (Allegedly no longer supports according to anonymous campaign spokesperson)
Medicare for All (Flip-flopped)
Trump will have the opportunity to exploit Harris’s conundrum: She cannot campaign on policies to fix crime, inflation, and border security without undermining the Biden-Harris administration’s policies, but she must tout the administration’s policies to validate her record and candidacy.
CNN’s Dana Bash exposed Harris’s conundrum during her first and only pre-taped interview.
Harris owned the Biden-Harris administration’s economic record while she simultaneously blamed Trump for it. The contradiction was stark, producing an outcome that forced her to tout her administration’s policies in order to validate her candidacy, all while she undermined her record and her candidacy.
Tuesday’s 90-minute debate will air at 9:00 p.m. EST on ABC News. ABC anchors Linsey Davis and David Muir will moderate.
Wendell Husebo is a political reporter with Breitbart News and a former RNC War Room Analyst. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality. Follow Wendell on “X” @wendellHusebø or on Truth Social @wendellHusebo.
“LANDSLIDE” – Polling Guru Now Predicting HUGE Victory For President Trump!
by Joshua C.
Sep. 09, 2024
THROUGH THE ROOF! That’s where the statistical probability that President Trump will win just went! According to polling guru Nate Silver, not only is it highly probable President Trump WINS — but it’s likely to be an electoral college landslide!
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 9, 2024
Those are HUGE margins of victory! Several pollsters have updated their numbers with wild swings over the last few weeks — but this is by far the largest jump so far showing that the final electoral college tally might not even be close!
A shocking new projection from pollster Nate Silver has Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump winning every swing state en route to an election landslide over Vice President Kamala Harris, Mediaite reported Monday.
MORE: https://t.co/PldUdjKbcK pic.twitter.com/LkhnJ2nzj0
A shocking new projection from pollster Nate Silver has Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump winning every swing state en route to an election landslide over Vice President Kamala Harris, Mediaite reported Monday.
Silver’s update came after Sunday’s New York Times/Siena College poll gave Trump a lead nationally over Harris — 1 point head to head and 2 points with third-party candidates — blunting any post-Democratic National Convention bump.
“This is one of our highest-rated pollsters, so it has a fair amount of influence on the numbers, reducing Harris’ lead in our national polling average to 2.5 points, which would put her in dangerous territory in the Electoral College,” Silver teased on his Silver Bulletin blog before Monday’s update.
“And our model is more bearish on Harris still because of its convention bounce adjustment and its assessment of economic ‘fundamentals.'”
Nate’s calculations often sit oddly — but accurately — outside the average range of other polls. From the same article in NewsMax, here’s why according to Nate:
Silver’s statistical modeling to project the Electoral College winner is more complex than a number comparison, as it uses data points outside mere polling.
“You’re welcome to debate the mechanics of the adjustment, but recent polls confirm its basic hypothesis that there’s been a shift in momentum against Harris,” Silver continued.
Tuesday’s debate will potentially reshape — if not define — the race next, Silver wrote in his contemporaneous analysis.
“The good news for Harris is that there’s a debate on Tuesday, and if she turns in a strong performance, nobody is going to care so much about the Times poll,” Silver wrote.
Other data modelers show a more competitive race than Silver projects.
Nate does go on to give a warning to those who would count the eggs before they’ve hatched, so to speak:
“Needless to say, stranger things have happened than a candidate who was behind in the polls winning,” Silver concluded. “And in America’s polarized political climate, most elections are close and a candidate is rarely out of the running.”
Nevertheless, with all the media avoidance and flip-flopping on policy… I can’t fathom a good showing for Kamala Harris in tomorrow’s big debate. I have a feeling that issue with the muted mics is going to haunt her. She’ll have to let President Trump speak and won’t be able to play “tough prosecutor” by showcasing her interruption abilities.
Which I highly suspect will put her INABILITIES on full display.
Even before Nate’s current numbers dropped, the “shift in momentum” we’ll talk about in a moment had already started showing up:
This is the projected map according to Nate Silver's 2024 election model.
Trump's odds are up to 63.8%. pic.twitter.com/36FVy2V5kK
— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) September 8, 2024
Fox News is also carrying the story of Nate’s newest numbers:
Harris has come out ahead in several national polls and swing state polls since taking over the top of the ticket. However, the results of the new NYT/Siena College poll, according to Silver, show that the results of the poll confirmed his election model’s view that there was a “shift in momentum” in the race.
The NYT/Siena college poll also found more voters said Harris is “too liberal or progressive” on key policy issues than voters who said they considered Trump to be “too conservative.”
According to his model, Harris has just a 36% chance of winning the Electoral College, and overall, leads Trump by 2.5 points in Silver’s national polling average.
That “shift in momentum” — could that be because Kamala & Co finally sat down in front of cameras… and even CNN’s spin couldn’t hide the ineptitude? Could it be because nearly the entirety of the Tim Walz family are Trump supporters!??? Maybe it had to do with the rising swell of support she is losing, and President Trump is gaining, from some big name democrats that are jumping the sinking ship of the democrat party?
Whatever is causing that “shift in momentum” — I think Nate’s right. It’s happening. And it seems to be spreading across different domains all at once.
Here’s more from the same Fox News story:
Silver also said on Wednesday that Michigan and Pennsylvania, both key swing states, might prove to be a problem for her.
“In PA, our polling averages had Harris +1.8 pre-DNC, but it’s now Harris +1.0. That’s before any convention bounce adjustment, which is implemented at a later stage of the model. In MI, the polling average has fallen from Harris +3.1 pre-DNC to Harris +1.9 now,” he wrote on X.
Silver pointed to multiple key portions of the NYT poll in an additional post on Sunday, specifically the fact that 47% of voters see Harris as too liberal.
“I’m not quite sure how Harris is supposed to spin her way out of this perception,” Silver wrote, noting that a high percentage of voters said they don’t know what Harris stands for in the poll, suggesting there was room to improve on those numbers.
“But Harris also blew one big opportunity to tack to the center with her selection of Tim Walz rather than Josh Shapiro: that a tiny minority of progressives objected to Shapiro was an argument in Shapiro’s favor, if anything. I think Walz was a decent enough pick on his own merits, but given an opportunity to offer a tangible signal of the direction her presidency was headed, she reverted to 2019 mode,” Silver wrote.
Could it be that the “shift in momentum” Nate is seeing came from two simple facts?
She has gone out of her way to avoid specifying her policies!
What is known about her previous policy record turns most voters off!
I have to agree with Nate, again: I’m not quite sure how she could possibly spin her way out of the perception she has created. And short of a completely obvious victory in tomorrow’s debate… I highly doubt her numbers will improve. Not with pollsters, and not in Novembers when it’s counting time.
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US News on Sep. 09, 2024
