Demand flies higher

Airline passenger miles finally on the rise; ANS price holds in upper

Petroleum News


Alaska North Slope crude advanced 2 cents to close at $68.02 per barrel March 17, while Brent crude fell 39 cents to $68, and West Texas Intermediate fell 20 cents to $64.60.

The ANS gain was a small glimmer of hope that oil prices might break out after a week where lower daily prices were the norm as markets consolidated after posting strong gains early in March. Brent and WTI were each a few pennies higher in early morning trading March 18 as Petroleum News went to press.

A long-awaited milestone was reached in passenger checkpoint data from the Transportation Security Administration March 12. The TSA said 1,357,111 airport passengers were screened, the highest number at checkpoints since March 15, 2020, when COVID-19 lockdowns were imposed across the country.

On March 12, 2020, the TSA screened 1,788,456 passengers, as demand began to wane due to the COVID-19 pandemic - falling short of the 2,503,924 passengers that passed checkpoints March 12, 2019.

Since demand for oil cratered in April 2020 in the face of the pandemic, jet fuel demand has been a recovery laggard compared to gasoline and motor fuel demand.

Passengers have been reluctant to return to the skies, but as COVID-19 vaccinations have risen, so have hopes for a recovery in air travel.

The International Air Transport Association, in passenger survey results released March 9, said that people are feeling frustrated with the loss of freedom to travel, with 68% of respondents indicating their quality of life is suffering as a result.

Some 40% of respondents reported mental stress and missing an important human moment because of travel restrictions, 46% have been unable to see family members, and over a third have said that restrictions prevent them from doing business normally, the IATA said, adding that 49% believe that air travel restrictions have gone too far.



Of respondents, 84% believe that COVID-19 will not disappear, and we need to manage its risks while living and traveling normally, the IATA said. 88% believe that when opening borders, the right balance must be struck between managing COVID-19 risks and getting the economy going again, and 85% believe that governments should set COVID-19 targets such as testing capacity or vaccine distribution to re-open borders.

“The top priority of everybody at the moment is staying safe amid the COVID-19 crisis, but it is important that we map a way to being able to re-open borders, manage risks and enable people to get on with their lives - that includes the freedom to travel,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA director general and CEO. “It is becoming clear that we will need to learn to live and travel in a world that has COVID-19. Given the health, social and economic costs of travel restrictions, airlines should be ready to re-connect the world as soon as governments are able to re-open borders.”

Of respondents, 57% expect to be traveling within two months of the pandemic being contained (improved from 49% in September), and 72% want to travel to see family and friends as soon as possible (improved from 63% in September), the IATA said, adding that 81% believe that they will be more likely to travel once they are vaccinated.

“People want to get back to travel, but quarantine is the showstopper,” said de Juniac. “As testing capacity and technology improves and the vaccinated population grows, the conditions for removing quarantine measures are being created, and this points us again towards working with governments for a well-planned reopening as soon as conditions allow.”

People want the freedom to travel, but the survey does not indicate that this is anticipated immediately, de Juniac said, adding, “As testing capacity increases and vaccine distribution grows, there is a clear expectation that borders will re-open without quarantine measures.”




Divergent expectations

Bearish remarks by a major consultancy have thrown a bit of cold water on oil prices.
Gasoline demand may never recover to pre-pandemic levels, the International Energy Agency said March 17 in its Oil 2021 five-year outlook.

Remote working has cut demand, the IEA said, and commuting is likely to remain curtailed in 2021 and beyond.

“Global gasoline consumption is unlikely to ever return to its 2019 level,” the IEA said. “Strong growth in developing countries is no longer enough to offset declines within the OECD, where fuel efficiency improvements are making an impact.”

But a couple of analysts speaking on CNBC’s “Trading Nation” March 12, made a bull case for the near term.

Even with a year-to-date gain of nearly 40%, there’s “clearly some upside” for oil prices, Piper Sandler research analyst Craig Johnson said.

“I could actually see a number that could be north of 100 in the next, say, six to ... 12 months from here,” Johnson said.

Nancy Tengler of Laffer Tengler Investments said her firm doesn’t expect OPEC to increase production meaningfully in the near future.

“We don’t see any supply increase until October, which means the price of oil can run pretty handily from here,” she said. “Our expectations are somewhere around $80 a barrel in the summer, so, that’s bullish for most of the oil stocks.”