Vietnam's 2024 birthrate hits historic low, defying Year of the Dragon trends

Vietnam’s birthrate in 2024 has dropped to an estimated 1.91 children per woman, the lowest in the nation’s history. This marks a significant departure from the traditional belief that the Year of the Dragon, considered auspicious, would lead to a rise in births. Deputy Minister of Health Nguyen Thi Lien Huong revealed the figure during a population conference in Hanoi, noting that this is the third consecutive year the birthrate has remained below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.

The decline has been steady over recent years, falling from 2.11 in 2021 to 2.01 in 2022, 1.96 in 2023, and now 1.91 in 2024. Despite expectations of a birth surge during the Year of the Dragon, the record low reflects changing societal attitudes, with families moving away from traditional beliefs. It also highlights the limited effectiveness of current pro-natalist policies in reversing the downward trend.

Urban areas with higher levels of socioeconomic development continue to experience the lowest birthrates, averaging 1.7–1.8 children per woman over the past two decades. In 2024, the urban rate dropped further to 1.67, while rural areas recorded a higher rate of 2.08.

Regional disparities are also evident. Areas with fewer economic opportunities, such as the northern midlands and mountains (2.34 children per woman) and the Central Highlands (2.24), reported significantly higher birthrates. In contrast, the southeast region, which includes Ho Chi Minh City, recorded the country’s lowest rate at 1.48 children per woman.

The long-term implications of this decline are concerning. Deputy Director of the Ministry of Health's Population Department, Pham Vu Hoang, warned that if low fertility persists, Vietnam’s population could begin to shrink after 2054. Projections indicate an annual population decline of 0.04% between 2054 and 2059 and 0.18% between 2064 and 2069, equating to an average loss of 200,000 people per year. By contrast, maintaining the replacement-level birthrate of 2.1 children per woman would allow for slight annual population growth of 0.17%, adding approximately 200,000 people per year.

Experts caution that low fertility can have severe consequences, as seen in Japan, which has the world’s fastest-aging society. An aging population often leads to increased social, healthcare, and welfare costs, labor shortages, and reduced socioeconomic resources. Vietnam may face similar challenges if its birthrate continues to decline.

In response, the government has set a population strategy aiming to stabilize the birthrate at 2.1 children per woman and reach a population of 104 million by 2030. The Ministry of Health’s draft Population Law proposes several measures to address the issue. These include abolishing penalties for having a third child, encouraging women to marry before the age of 30 and have two children by age 35, and providing financial incentives to promote childbirth.

The record low birthrate in 2024 serves as a wake-up call for Vietnam. The country faces an urgent need to implement effective policies to counter the long-term impacts of declining fertility and ensure sustainable population growth.