Trump’s ‘$17 trillion’ investment figure is fiction

[Thiệu Ngô]

President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed he has secured “$17 trillion” in investment this year – or even more than that

By Daniel Dale

“We have over $17 trillion being invested now in the United States,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday. He added moments later, “We have more than $17 trillion in eight months.” On Friday, he said he thought the figure had “just cracked $18 trillion.”

But even the $17 trillion figure is fictional.

Trump’s own White House website values the “major investment announcements” this term at “$8.8 trillion,” around half the “$17 trillion” and “$18 trillion” numbers Trump used out loud this week. And an item-by-item CNN review of the top 10 items on the White House’s list shows that even the “$8.8 trillion” number is itself a big exaggeration.

The White House list doesn’t show that $8.8 trillion is “being invested now in the United States” or even that there have been $8.8 trillion in credible Trump-era commitments to make eventual investments in the US. Rather, the White House list includes:



$600 billion from “EU firms” even though the European Union has made clear that this is merely an estimate of potential private investment, not an actual commitment
$600 billion from Saudi Arabia even though the Saudis’ vague $600 billion pledge encompasses both “investments and trade,” not simply Saudi investment in the US
$500 billion from India even though the two countries have said the $500 billion is a goal for “bilateral trade,” not Indian investment in the US
$1.2 trillion from Qatar even though the White House previously announced that Trump’s agreement with Qatar is to generate $1.2 trillion in “economic exchange” between the US and Qatar, not for Qatar to invest $1.2 trillion in the US
$1.4 trillion from the United Arab Emirates even though this is a vague pledge more than double the size of the UAE’s gross domestic product
$1 trillion from Japan even though Japan’s actual pledge is $550 billion (and Japan insists that even this smaller amount will overwhelmingly be made up of loans and loan guarantees, not equity investment)
$450 billion from South Korea even though South Korea made a $350 billion pledge that is in limbo amid tensions with the US (South Korea also promised to increase its US energy purchases to $100 billion, not to add $100 billion in additional energy purchases)
More than $1 trillion in vague corporate pledges that analysts say likely include normal operational spending and previously planned investments


The White House declined to comment on why the president keeps saying he has gotten “$17 trillion” in investment instead of the White House’s own “$8.8 trillion” figure, and it would not comment on the record to address CNN’s specific questions about the many holes in the “$8.8 trillion” figure.

Instead, White House spokesperson Kush Desai said in an email that the media is doing “pointless and pedantic nitpicking” and said, “The President is right: industry leaders have committed to investing trillions to make and hire in America, with trillions more to come.” He added that the media would be “beclowned” when Trump’s “policies take effect and investment commitments materialize into new factories and facilities.”

Here’s a fact check about what the top 10 countries or entities on the White House list have actually committed to – or, more to the point, what they have not.

The European Union: No actual commitment to invest $600 billion

The White House’s list of supposed investment announcements attributes $600 billion to “EU Firms.” But firms in the European Union haven’t invested $600 billion in the US during this Trump presidency – or even made promises to invest $600 billion in the US.

Rather, the EU has vaguely signaled that unidentified companies in the EU are interested in investing this much in the US during Trump’s second term. The EU agreed in August to the following language in a joint statement with the Trump administration: “European companies are expected to invest an additional $600 billion across strategic sectors in the United States through 2028.”

The $600 billion in “expected” private investment may never materialize. Justin Wolfers, a University of Michigan economics professor, noted in an August interview that “there is no commitment; ‘expected to’ is not a commitment.” Trump has wrongly described the $600 billion as a “gift” the EU “gave me” to “do anything I want,” but the money has not been handed to him to control, nor handed to anybody at this point.

“The European Commission cannot order or decide how private companies invest in the US,” Cecilia Malmström, a Peterson Institute for International Economics nonresiden t senior fellow who formerly served as European commissioner for trade, said in an email. “The figure given was an estimation of what companies have said they planned to do and invest in the coming years. It is not a legal commitment, and it would be a bit risky to include the figure in a budget or a forecast.”

Saudi Arabia: Lots of reasons for skepticism of a vague $600 billion ‘investments and trade’ pledge

The White House’s announcements list attributes $600 billion in supposed “foreign investment” to Saudi Arabia. But Saudi Arabia has publicly described the $600 billion not as “investment” but as an “intention” to engage in some unspecified combination of “investments and trade” over four years.

Experts say a $600 billion Saudi investment in the US over four years appears unlikely.

“The economic and financial relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia will deepen under the Trump presidency, but the numbers given for potential future Saudi trade and investment with the United States look too high,” Tim Callen, a former International Monetary Fund official who is now a visiting fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute think tank, said in an email.

“If it is to occur during this presidency, the $150 billion per year average this implies is equivalent to 14% of Saudi Arabia’s annual gross domestic product, 40% of its annual export revenue, and just over 50% of its annual imports of goods and services,” Callen said. Referring to Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, he added, “It is also equivalent to about two-thirds of the assets held by the Public Investment Fund, but the PIF has recently said that it aims to have 80% of its portfolio invested in Saudi Arabia.”

Maya Senussi, lead economist at advisory firm Oxford Economics, wrote in May that if global energy prices don’t increase, the Saudi commitment to making domestic investments “could restrict its ability to fulfil” pledges of overseas investment within the next four years. Callen also noted that Saudi Arabia did not come close to fulfilling what Trump has claimed was a Saudi pledge during his first term to buy $450 billion in American goods.

India: Its $500 billion figure is about bilateral trade, not Indian investment in the US

The White House’s announcements list includes $500 billion in supposed “foreign investment” from India. But India has not actually made any promise to invest $500 billion in the US.

Rather, an official joint statement from Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in February confirmed that the $500 billion figure is a goal “aiming to more than double total bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030.”

In other words, the goal would be met in part by Indian companies exporting more to Americans. And even if it was largely met by American companies exporting more to Indians, that would not be the same as India making an “investment” in the US.

The White House’s online list does say the “focus” of the $500 billion Indian “investment” is “mutual trade expansion.” Still, it’s inaccurate to describe the $500 billion figure as an Indian investment pledge at all.

“I would not include $500 billion on an investment chart,” Richard Rossow, the chair on India and emerging Asia economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, said in an email. Rossow said “it is hard to imagine a jump to $500 billion” from the current level of Indian investment in the US. (A non-comprehensive 2023 survey from an Indian industry group found about $40 billion in cumulative investment in the US from the Indian companies that responded.)

Qatar: The announcement was a $1.2 trillion “economic exchange,” not a $1.2 trillion investment

The second-biggest item on the White House’s announcements list is $1.2 trillion in “foreign investment” from Qatar. But when the White House announced its deal with Qatar in May, it said, “President Donald J. Trump signed an agreement with Qatar to generate an economic exchange worth at least $1.2 trillion.” The phrase “economic exchange” is vague enough to include two-way trade and US investment in Qatar rather than only Qatari investment in the US.

The chief executive of Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund told Bloomberg in May that the fund planned to make $500 billion in additional US investments over the next decade. But Diego Lopez, managing director of Global SWF, which researches sovereign wealth funds, said that figure is “unrealistic” based on his organization’s estimates of the Qatari fund’s current investments ($524 billion in assets under management, with about $105 billion of that invested in the US).

Even if the fund did manage to invest $500 billion in the US, it’s unclear where the other $700 billion in Qatari investments needed to get to the “$1.2 trillion” figure would come from; Lopez said that “most of the sovereign wealth and firepower in Qatar” is held by the fund.

United Arab Emirates: Few details about the massive $1.4 trillion pledge

The biggest item on the White House’s announcements list is $1.4 trillion in “foreign investment” from the United Arab Emirates. While UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan did say in May that the country had a plan to invest $1.4 trillion in key sectors “over the next 10 years,” neither the UAE nor the Trump administration have explained how the UAE would invest that much in the US. The $1.4 trillion figure is well over double the UAE’s 2024 gross domestic product, and a document published by the White House in May notes the UAE had just $35 billion in total foreign direct investment in the US as of 2023.

That May document claimed that Trump “announced over $200 billion in commercial deals” during a visit to Abu Dhabi that month, but the list includes UAE product purchases and American companies’ investments in the UAE rather than only UAE investments in the US. Even if they were all investments, there would still be a massive leap needed to reach $1.4 trillion.

Japan: The commitment is $550 billion, not $1 trillion, and question marks remain
The White House’s announcements list credits Japan with $1 trillion in “foreign investment.” But the Japanese government hasn’t pledged nearly that much new investment. Rather, Japan’s prime minister at the time told Trump in February that Japanese companies would bring their level of investment in the US up to $1 trillion – from an existing level of more than $800 billion.

In July, Japan agreed to invest $550 billion in the US by the end of Trump’s term in early 2029.

The money is supposed to be invested in specific key industries, including semiconductors, shipbuilding, energy, pharmaceuticals, metals and minerals. A memorandum of understanding between the US and Japan says Japan has the right to decline to invest in an opportunity that was selected by Trump after a recommendation from a US investment committee, but if Japan doesn’t quickly provide the funding, Trump has the right to impose tariffs.

That’s a lot more detail than the statements from other countries and entities on the White House list, but there are still a bunch of key details left to be worked out.

Mireya Solis, director of the Center for Asia Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution think tank, noted that Japan’s top trade negotiator has said  Japan’s position is that just 1% to 2% of the $550 billion will be actual equity investment, with the rest in loans and loan guarantees. And Solis said “many Japanese companies are in a wait-and-see attitude,” wondering how the US-led investment initiative will operate.

Regardless, Solis said, the $1 trillion figure listed by the White House “seems extremely high to me,” adding, “I’m scratching my head, let me put it that way.”

South Korea: Uncertainty over the status of a $350 billion (not $450 billion) investment pledge

The White House’s announcements list includes $450 billion in “foreign investment” from South Korea. But South Korea has actually pledged to invest $350 billion, in some form still to be determined, and negotiations over that smaller sum have run into difficulties.

The White House’s “$450 billion” figure appears to include a South Korean pledge to purchase $100 billion in US energy products during Trump’s tenure. But aside from the fact that product purchases are not investments, a South Korean official told The Chosun Daily newspaper that this commitment is not to buy an additional $10 0 billion in US energy products but to get to a total of $100 billion – so a total of roughly $25 billion a year, up incrementally from a 2024 figure the nonprofit Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis put at more than $19 billion. Other analysts use higher or lower 2024 figures, but they agree that the South Korean commitment is for an incremental increase.

In addition, the specifics of the $350 billion in supposed investment have not yet been hammered out. Following an August meeting between Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, “the United States added a few demands that we found difficult to accept,” Foreign Minister Cho Hyun told the JoongAng Daily newspaper in early October.

Trump said in September that the $350 billion from South Korea would be “up front,” but a senior South Korean official responded on domestic television that this is “objectively and realistically not a level we are able to handle,” Reuters reported. The Korea Herald reported this week that South Korea is pushing to make heavy use of “loans and guarantees from state-run financial institutions” in the package, while the US “is pushing for a higher proportion of direct cash investment and wants control over project selection.”

Negotiations are ongoing, but they have been complicated by a strain in political and economic relations caused by a US immigration raid in September that ensnared hundreds of South Korean workers at a Georgia factory ​being built for two South Korean corporate titans, Hyundai and LG. Lee said in September that current US immigration policies affecting Korean workers will make his country’s companies “very hesitant to make direct investments in the United States.”

Victor Cha, Korea chair and president of the geopolitics and foreign policy department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote in a forthcoming article he provided to CNN that the promised $350 billion investment fund is “in trouble,” citing the immigration raid and financial sticking points.

“Koreans, already angered over the images of their countrymen in shackles in ICE detention facilities, may play hard ball and continue to withhold their massive investment commitments,” Cha wrote. He noted it’s also possible the two sides find creative “workarounds” in the negotiations, but it’s clear there is, at least, considerable uncertainty about the future of the promised $350 billion sum.

Corporate pledges: Hefty but vague totals that analysts say likely include companies’ regular spending

The White House list includes numerous investment pledges from corporations. The biggest is $600 billion from Apple. Tied for the second-biggest are $500 billion in artificial intelligence spending from Nvidia and a $500 billion joint artificial intelligence initiative from Softbank, OpenAI and Oracle.

There is an AI investment boom underway, and there is no telling how big it will be. But there is also a long history of splashy corporate investment announcements not coming to fruition, including during the first Trump administration. Expert observers have expressed caution about the pledges made this year – saying it’s likely the figures include normal spending and previously approved investments.

“Even the largest companies” like Apple and Nvidia “can’t realistically commit to an incremental spend of $500 billion over any reasonable timeframe,” Gil Luria, managing director and head of technology research at D.A. Davidson, said in an email. “What they would most likely count in those numbers is their current spend in the US, as well as other spend they expect from their vendors, partners and customers. Even then, these numbers are more likely a statement of support for the administration more than a firm commitment of capital.”

Similarly, John Belton, portfolio manager at investment firm Gabelli, wrote in emailed commentary about Apple’s announcement: “The $600 billion will be spread out over several years and includes multiple areas of investment, from facilities to personnel to input costs, most of which was already reflected in Apple’s long-range financial planning.” Belton added: “For context, they unveiled a $430 billion five-year plan in 2021, so a program of this magnitude is not out of the ordinary.”