Mike Pence Could Become Donald Trump's Nemesis in 2024

9/16

Former Vice President Mike Pence remains at the center of speculation about his plans for the 2024 presidential election, and though that's more than three years away, he may already be contemplating a run.

Donald Trump, Mike Pence are posing for a picture: Then Republican presidential nominee Donald J. Trump congratulates his running mate, then Indiana Governor Mike Pence, after Pence formally accepted the nomination during the third day of the Republican National Convention in the Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland Ohio, July 20, 2016. The 2024 Republican primaries could see Trump and Pence face each other for the party's nomination.© Mark Reinstein/Corbis/Getty Images Then Republican presidential nominee Donald J. Trump congratulates his running mate, then Indiana Governor Mike Pence, after Pence formally accepted the nomination during the third day of the Republican National Convention in the Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland Ohio, July 20, 2016. The 2024 Republican primaries could see Trump and Pence face each other for the party's nomination.
Pence's political advocacy group, Advancing American Freedom (AAF), is seeking to raise $18 million within its first year, according to an Axios report published on Wednesday.

As a former vice president and a household name, Pence would ordinarily seem well-positioned to contest the Republican nomination, but his path to the White House could be blocked by one major obstacle: former President Donald Trump.

A recent CNN/SSRS poll showed that 49 percent of Republicans now believe someone else should be the party's candidate, though Trump is still the favorite to win the GOP nomination.

The former president has repeatedly hinted at another White House run, saying his supporters will be "happy" with what he decides, while Pence has been even more reticent on his plans.

However, if his support among Republican voters declines and Pence can successfully build a war chest going into the primary campaign, he could see himself as a potentially viable opponent.

David A. Bateman, an associate professor at Cornell University's Department of Government, told Newsweek it would be very unusual if Pence weren't considering a run.

Bateman said if Pence "isn't seriously planning a presidential run - even against Trump - then he would be maybe the first VP in modern history to not do so."

"All VPs, most governors, most senators, and a good heap of others are always thinking of running," he said. "I expect that won't be any different this cycle."





Mark Reinstein/Corbis/Getty Images Then Republican presidential nominee Donald J. Trump congratulates his running mate, then Indiana Governor Mike Pence, after Pence formally accepted the nomination during the third day of the Republican National Convention in the Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland Ohio, July 20, 2016. The 2024 Republican primaries could see Trump and Pence face each other for the party's nomination.


Bateman said potential candidates would be working on their "brand," but that running in opposition to Trump looks like a losing proposition.

"But only a handful probably want to be the anti-Trump candidate - it's a losing play, since Trump won the last nomination and has only become more popular with Republicans since then," Bateman said.

"Still, I expect most would be willing to go up against Trump, just like they would be willing to run if he endorsed someone else. They don't want to, since that complicates their path. But they'd do it if they could convince themselves they can still win, and politicians are both coldly rational and deeply self-delusional."

"The complication is that everyone knows Trump's ego allows no contenders: they know that if they announce too early, seeming to foreclose his own candidacy, that he'll unleash his spittle at them. That would really really complicate their path," Bateman went on.

"So I expect they're all prepping, and if Trump were to announce a bunch would decide they couldn't win and so back out while others would persuade themselves that they still could win and so would just accept that they'd have to be Trump's opponent. They'd try to avoid being the anti-Trump candidate, but he won't make it easy."